Key Points
Seasonally adjusted core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, accelerated to 3.9% in July and remains elevated on a moving quarter basis.
- However, inflation across shelter components continues to moderate.
- Shelter inflation was a significant driver of headline inflation in recent years due to the heavy weight of housing in the CPI.
- On a moving quarter basis, the price index for shelter is growing at its slowest pace since 2021.
CPI: Core & CPI: Shelter
Most states are seeing higher levels of continuing claims for unemployment insurance compared with last year.
- The year-over-year growth in claims is particularly pronounced in Washington DC.
- In the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV metropolitan statistical area (MSA), federal government employment has contracted by over 5% from December through June.
- Federal government employment accounted for ~11% of total MSA employment in December 2024.
Year-over-Year Growth in Continuing Jobless Claims, 4-Week Averages
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