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Key Points:
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the committee within the Fed that sets policy rates – revised their interest rate expectations downward in September projections.
- The median member now expects a 3.4% federal funds rate in December 2026, down from 3.6% in June projections.
- There continues to be significant uncertainty over the long-run level of the policy rate across FOMC members.
- The central tendency, which excludes the three highest and three lowest projections, gives a range of 2.8% to 3.5%.
- The median member’s unemployment projection was little-changed and a modest increase in unemployment rates is still expected.
FOMC Federal Funds Rate Projections, Median Member; FOMC Unemployment Rate Projections, Median Member
Housing permits were growing at a 1.3M seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in August, down 3.7% from July.
- Single family permit issuance decreased by 2.2% month-over-month to an 856K SAAR.
- The chart below shows cumulative state-level single-family permit issuance in 2025 relative to 2024.
- The pace of issuance has slowed across most states.
Housing Permit Issuance
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