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Key Points:
Despite moderating real disposable income growth and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer spending appeared to hold up through August.
- While the pace of personal consumption expenditure growth has fallen sharply from 2024 levels, growth remains near the 2016 – 2019 average pace.
- Personal consumption expenditures account for nearly 70% of real GDP.
Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Growth
While private fixed investment was supportive of GDP growth in the first half of 2025, that growth is primarily attributable to a few technology-related components.
- Excluding just two components - information processing equipment and software - private fixed investment would have contracted over the past 5 quarters.
Trends in Private Fixed Investment (QoQ Growth, Annualized)
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