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Key Points:
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to their highest level since 2021.
- With hiring rates near cyclical lows, increases in layoffs could translate to rising unemployment rates relatively quickly.
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, accelerated on a 3-month annualized basis in August.
- While prices across tariff-sensitive goods have generally declined in recent years, price growth has turned positive in 2025.
- In the chart below, core inflation is compared with inflation across apparel, consumer electronics, recreational goods, furniture and appliances.
CPI Trends: 2024 - Present (3M/3M Annualized)
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